Technical Analysis

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed like suggesting that a 50 bps cut is still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 43% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break. The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of

The USDCAD is finding buyers against its rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.35756 (see rising blue line on the chart below). Stay above that moving average will keep the buyers more in control. Also in play is a 200 day moving average at 1.35889. On the topside, there is work to do to

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US CPI report and, although as expected it didn’t have the same large impact as it used to, the core m/m figure surprised to the upside. The data triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now seeing just a 13% probability of a 50 bps cut

The USDCHF has moved higher today and in the process, has stretched toward the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8517, and that is where sellers started to lean against of earlier today and on the most recent hourly bar. Getting above that level would

The AUDUSD moved lower after the stronger core CPI data. On the break lower, the price moved below a cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6653, the 100-day moving average of 0.6648, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.66422. That opened the door for further downward momentum,

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in the markets on the release, but

The US yields are trading at new session lows. The two-year is trading at 3.598%. That’s the lowest level going back to March 2023. The 10 year yield is an 3.642%. That’s its lowest level going back to June 2023. The low in yields has the USDJPY also extending back toward session lows for the

The major US stock indices have seen a run lower over the last hour or so of trading. The move lower now has the Dow down around -400 points or 1%. It was up 134 points at session highs. The S&P is down -23.36 points or -0.42%. At highs the index was up 24.08 points

Fundamental Overview The NFP report on Friday gave the USD a boost as the data under the hood was better than feared. The probabilities for a 50 bps cut decreased as a result and they are now standing around 27%. A soft US CPI report tomorrow might increase those probabilities a little bit, but we

The AUDUSD moved lower on Friday helped by risk-off sentiment from the tumble in US stocks. In trading today, selling has continued after a rise in the early Asian session. The fall has taken the price of the AUDUSD to a key technical support level defined by three separate technical tools: The 38.2% retracement of

The NZDUSD continued its run to the downside in trading today after sharp declines on Friday helped by the risk-off sentiment on stock selling, and lower commodities. The down momentum continued today and carried the price down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low to the August high. That level

Fundamental Overview The USDCHF pair eventually dropped to a new low as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower giving the CHF a boost. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. Nevertheless, the trend in the labour market

The US jobs report was a bit weaker than expectations especially when you consider the -86,000 revision to the prior month’s. Nonfarm payroll rose by 142K lower than the 161K estimate but the unemployment rate did fall to 4.2% from 4.3%. The USD dollar had an up-and-down reaction sending the three major currency pairs to

Overall for the week, the USDCHF is little changed with highs on Monday and Tuesday and the low for the week reached today on the US jobs volatility. After trading to a new low for the week (and a new low for the year too), the price of the USDCHF has snapped back higher with

Both the US and Canadian jobs report will released today. In the US, the market is breathing a little sigh of relief in that the numbers weren’t as weak as last month. The unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2% from 4.3%. In Canada, the unemployment rate moved higher 26.6% which was a highest level

The NASDAQ index is trading to a new session low and to the lowest level going back to August 12. The move to the downside is off of mixed/weaker US jobs report. The nonfarm payroll rose less than expectations (142K vs 160K estimate) with the prior months being revised lower by 86,000 as well. The

The USDCAD has moved to a new high and reach the next technical target at 1.35535 (see, mom months absent concepts and). THe price has not been above that moving average since August 7 nearly one month ago. A break above that level would have traders looking toward its 200-day moving average of 1.35880. Earlier

The NZDUSD has moved higher. It is now moving lower in volatile trading as it digests the US jobs report and comments from Fed officials this morning including Feds Waller, Feds Goolsby, and Feds Williams. Stocks are moving lower which is leading to some risk off in the NZDUSD as well. Technically, the pair is

The USDJPY has seen up and down volatility after the US jobs report and subsequent market volatility. The tumble in US stocks and move lower in yields may have an influence as well as sellers pushed the price lower. Technically however, the low price today at 141.75, 10 apex of the low price from August

AUD/USD daily The Australian dollar chart has caught my attention today as it falls 76 pips, or 1.1%. It’s the underperformer today as the US dollar strengthens broadly and risk trades are beaten up. A week ago, it looked like it could be breaking out as it touched the highest since January but the market

Fundamental Overview Gold has been rallying steadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The soft US Job Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the key resistance around the 2530 level. This move has been driven by falling real yields as the softer US data caused the

Broadcom will announce earnings after the close. What is expected? EPS $1.22 Revenues $12.979 THe price of Broadcom – like other chip stocks – has been hit over the last few weeks of trading. From the high on August 22 and $172.42, the price has move down to a low of $149.15 reached just yesterday.

Uh-Oh! The rise in the NASDAQ index today took the price to a high of 17295. That also extended briefly above its 200-hour moving average at 17284.26 (at the time – the current level is a little lower at 17281.12), but the momentum quickly reversed and traders started to use that moving average line as

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has come back under pressure recently as we got a couple of soft US data. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it came lower than expected and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. The US Job Openings yesterday showed some more cooling as the data

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

The USD is moving lower across the board and those moves has the GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD all testing the key 200 hour MAs. GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has moved above a swing area between 1.3128 and 1.31447 and also the 100 hour moving average at 1.3136. The next target comes in at the 200-hour moving average