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China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results. Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug) expected 2.5%, prior 2.7% Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug) expected 4.8%, prior 5.1% Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Unemployment 5.3% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Also published were home prices

NASDAQ and S&P indices end the week with five straight days of gains As the day and week comes to a close, the JPY is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies and the NZD is the weakest. The US is ending the day mixed with most of the declines coming vs

The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher: Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month. Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last month Core Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last month Core Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month Looking

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% The drop here fits with the continued softness in the euro area industrial sector, led by the struggles in Germany especially. Looking at the breakdown, intermediate goods dropped by 1.3%, capital goods by 1.6%, durable consumer goods by 2.8%. That was slightly offset by an increase in energy by 0.3%

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

This is mainly to further reduce borrowing costs and to try and bolster consumption activity. Domestic demand conditions in China have suffered greatly ever since the Covid pandemic and there hasn’t been much of a revival in that area despite the world returning back to normal. The report says that some banks are already making

Japan Business Survey Index for Q3 2024: 4.5% prior -1.0% Earlier data: Japan PPI (August) -0.2% m/m (expected +0.0%) and +2.5% y/y (expected +2.8%) — Japan’s Quarterly Business Survey Index (BSI) measures the sentiment of business executives regarding the economic conditions in their industries. It is compiled by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

92 of 101 economists expect a 25 bps rate cut next week 65 of 95 economists expect three 25 bps rate cuts for the remainder of the year 54 of 71 economists believe that the Fed cutting by 50 bps at any of the meetings as ‘unlikely’ On the final point, five other economists believe

Nikkei with the info: Honda Motor will reduce the number of employees at its joint venture with Chinese automaker Dongfeng Motor Group focusing in particular on workers at its three factories that produce gasoline-powered cars. And, via Bloomberg: Honda will suspend production at 3 plants for 2 weeks Inventory adjustment This article was written by

The first of 3 coupon auctions for the week will start today at 1 PM when the US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes. The treasury will auction off 10-year notes tomorrow and 30-year bonds on Thursday. The note auction success (or failure) will be judged by the results vs the 6 month

USD/JPY daily chart The dollar has seen some steadier tones in the last few sessions but USD/JPY endured a bit more of a mix of fortunes. The pair was down on Friday as bond yields fell but rebounded in trading yesterday. The bounce is keeping up somewhat today, with the pair now up 0.2% to

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

ECB: 100% probability of a 25bp cut Fed: 100% probability of a 25bp cut BoE: 80% probability of a hold (20% chance of a cut) BoJ: 99% probability of a hold (1% chance of a cut) RBA: 92% probability of a hold (8% chance of a cut) SNB: 100% probability of a cut Out of

The advance reading is here: Japan Q2 GDP +0.8% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) The updated result has trimmed growth back a little: Buried in the details is a little further discouragement. The contribution from domestic demand was trimmed to +0.8%q/q vs. the +0.9% in the preliminary release: private consumption similarly trimmed, +0.9% q/q vs. +1.0%

gold monthly China’s central bank didn’t report any gold purchases in August, saying that reserves remain at 72.80 million troy ounces. Reported buying halted in May after many months of accumulation. Reports afterwards suggested the PBOC had grown price sensitive. in February the PBOC bought 390,000 ounces in March, 160,000 in April, 60,000 A few

WTI crude is still clinging to support but the picture is looking increasingly dire for brent. The global benchmark closed today at the lowest since December 2021. There have been a series of daily lows right around these levels and there are intraday lows that are worse since 2021 but this is the lowest daily

On Friday, shares of Nvidia fell 4% and chipmakers dragged the Nasdaq to its lowest in the three weeks. One reason for the sell-off was a Goldman Sachs note from Peter Oppenheimer arguing that traffic to ChatGPT was plunging. Goldman published this chart, which was later widely circulated (including in the Financial Times). It showed

None of how the market is acting today in reaction to the lack of a strong 50 basis point signal from Waller should be a surprise. Here is what I wrote back in June: It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ‘normal’ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and what

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Markets: Gold down $20 to $2496 US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 3.72%, 2-year yields down 9.3 bps to 3.65% WTI crude oil down $1.07 to $68.08 S&P 500 down 1.7% JPY leads, AUD lags Non-farm payrolls Friday lived up to the hype, though it wasn’t exactly straightforward. The kneejerk reaction to the report

It’s been a ride today between a mixed non-farm payrolls report and Fed commentary. With the cards now all on the table, the market is shifting away from 50 basis points. Odds are down to 23% from as high as 57% in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report. At the same time, there are

The angst in markets is certainly showing up early today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This comes as bond yields are dipping, with 10-year yields in the US falling to below 3.70% – down 3.8 bps on the day. It’s all positioning flows ahead of the US jobs

Reuters with the info from Citi following the OPEc announcement earlier: “We see the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at $70-72 Brent” We recommend selling on a bounce toward $80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

Prior 40.0 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Source link

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not

It’s bizarre to me that OPEC+ would leak the plan to bring back barrels in October just on Friday and now it’s completely reversing that after a $5 drop in oil prices. Now Bloomberg reports — citing a delegate — that OPEC+ is close to delaying the supply hike. The chart doesn’t look great but