Central Banks

  • I supported 75 bps and could support another 75 bps in July
  • Prudent strategy might be to continue with 50 bps hikes after July meeting
  • I assume we will be able to ‘relax’ policy somewhat in 2024
  • If supply shocks abate we may not need to raise rates as high as otherwise
  • A steady approach to raising rates may help us avoid tightening more than necessary

The 75 bps hike this week was anything but ‘steady’. I agree with him that if they’d established 50 as a consistent baseline it would be credible but now it looks like all their commentary is meaningless until the leak to the WSJ 24 hours before the meeting.

 EUR  /USD is at the lows of the day, down 80 pips to 1.0464.

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