Technical Analysis

USDJPY takes a nap

The  USDJPY  moved down and up yesterday, and it is moving down and up today.

The low price yesterday stalled ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the last trend leg higher (from June 6). That retracement level is also near the swing high from Tuesday’s trade and a swing low from Wednesday’s trade (see blue numbered circles).

The subsequent move to the upside yesterday stalled ahead of the earlier high for the day and also the high from Wednesday. So a ceiling is in place between 134.46 and 134.55 (see red numbered circles). It would take a move above that level to add to the bullish bias.

On the downside, the low price today at 133.35 stalled ahead of the low price from yesterday at 133.175. The low also stalled ahead of a upward sloping trendline along with the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 133.385. Moving below those levels would increase the bearish bias.

For now, the pair is seeming tired after the sharp run to the upside, but the price is not backing off either. When you are tired, you rest. The USDJPY is resting and waiting for the next shove to awaken the price action to the next move.

What side of the bed will the USDJPY get up on?

The trend is your friend and the bias remains more bullish above the aforementioned lower levels – especially as the market prices in even more Fed tightening and faster tightening.

However, if yields start to come back down as the  stock market  unravels in a big way, that might be a catalyst for a corrective move lower at least in the short term.

The good news is the battle lines are drawn. Follow the price action and the “will” of the market. It will awaken again at some point. .

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