Technical Analysis


EURUSD tumbles lower and below 50% retracement

The  EURUSD  has moved to a new session low and in the process has moved closer to the 61.8% target of the move up fro the May 13 low. That level comes in at 1.05157.

The low just reached 1.05204 but has bounced to 1.0535 currently.

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair yesterday moved below a key swing area between 1.0633 and 1.0641. Today the corrective move in the Asian session saw the pair move back up to re test that swing area, only to find willing sellers (at 1.0641). The price pushed lower and has accelerated to the downside post the CPI data.

I have been talking about that Red Box for a while. The traders around the world were focused on it. They tilted the bias back to the downside and had ‘Traders Luck’ with the help from the CPI data.

The EURUSD pair has since moved below the 50% of the move up from the May 13 low at 1.05673. That will now be a close risk level for short term traders. Above that watch 1.0578 and a swing area between 1.0592 to 1.05986.

Get below the 61.8% and the pair looks toward 1.0482 to 1.0490 and then 1.04709.

Looking at the daily chart below, the other clue for the market, was the inability for the pair on the corrective move from the May low to get back above the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 trading range. That level comes in at 1.07862. The high price reached 1.07861 back at the end of day. The high price yesterday reached 1.07773 before rotating back to the downside.

A corrective move that can’t get above the 38.2% retracement is just a plain-vanilla correction in a bearish market. Ultimately down the road that 38.2% retracement level would need to be broken if the buyers are to take more control.

EURUSD

EURUSD tumbles lower

A look around the markets shows the:

  • Dow down -500 points
  • NASDAQ index down -263 points
  • S&P down -74 points

In the US debt market, a snapshot of rates currently shows:

  • 2 year 2.957%, +14 basis points
  • 5 year 3.166%, +10.1 basis points
  • 10 year 3.084%, +4.3 basis points
  • 30 year 3.158%, -1.1 basis point



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