Technical Analysis

USDCAD stays below the 100 hour moving average

The USDCAD has moved to a new session low and in the process has made a new low for the 10th consecutive day. Yesterday the low came in at 1.25228. The low price just reached 1.25166. Over those 10 days, the price has been down 8 of the 10 days at the close.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the move to the downside has seen the price stay below its 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the chart above) for all but a handful of hourly bars.

The price moved above the 100 hour moving average last Friday briefly, and moved above the moving average yesterday on 2 separate occasions, but again only for a couple hourly bars each time. Sellers continue to remain in control below the 100 hour moving average currently is at 1.25692 and moving lower.

The pair is also trading within a channel on the hourly chart above. The lower channel trendline doesn’t come into play until around 1.2462 (and moving lower). That is near the swing low going back to April 21 at 1.24593. On the topside, the topside channel trendline cuts across above its 100 hour moving average at 1.2580 currently (and moving lower).

The price is bouncing off of the new low, but still needs to get above the 100 hour moving average (and stay above) to give the buyers some technical control. Absent that and the sellers still has the stronger hand.

Looking at the daily chart below, the price moved below its 100 and 200 day moving averages on May 30, and although the price traded above and below the 200 day moving average (green line in the chart below) for 4 consecutive days, the price is has also closed below the 200 day moving average for 8 straight days now.


USDCAD has been below its 200 day moving average for 8 days

Crude oil is trading at $119.77 currently. The weekly crude oil showed a surprise build of 2.025M build vs. -1.917M draw expected. The high price reached $121.34. The low was at $119.33.

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