Technical Analysis

EURUSD trades in an up and down trading range since May 23

The EURUSD is tilting back toward the low for the day. That low came in at 1.0683. The current price bar on the hourly chart just reached 1.06876.

In the NY session , the price moved back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs (green and blue lines) at 1.0719 and 1.0713. That tilted the technical bias back to the downside. It would take a move back above those levels to shift the bias back to the upside.

Admittedly, the price has seen fluctuations above and below that moving averages over the last week or so of trading. The market is deciding what to do next. There has been a lot of ups and downs since May 23 (see red box)

Looking at the hourly chart above, since breaking above the 1.06332 and 1.0641 swing area back on May 23, the price of the EURUSD has only had one a single bar that dipped below that area (last Wednesday). After the failed break, the price re-based against the swing area and pushed higher on Thursday and Friday.

The move to the upside, took the price into a swing area between 1.0748 and 1.07637. There are a number of swing highs between that area (see green numbered circles). The inability to extend higher today gave the sellers a reason to push back below the moving average levels.

What now?

Although the bias has turned back down, there is work to do to get outside of the red box. Support targets come in at 1.0678, 1.0661 and the aforementioned swing area between 1.06336 and 1.0641. If that lower area can be broken – followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 13 low at 1.0629 as confirmation – the sellers would be even more in control.

Conversely, a move back above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, puts the buyers back in the driver seat with the 1.0748 – 1.07637 as the next upside hurdle followed by the high price from last week at 1.0786.

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