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Here’s the May jobs story so far:

  • ADP +128K vs +300K expected
  • ISM services employment not yet released
  • ISM manufacturing employment 49.6 vs 50.9 prior
  • Philly employment 25.5 vs 41.4 prior
  • Empire employment 14.0 vs 7.3 prior
  • Initial jobless claims survey week 195K vs 197K exp

I don’t see this as a particularly important report. A 50 bps hike from the Federal Reserve is baked in and there’s no reasonable number here that could change that. Average hourly earnings is the detail to watch because a sharp rise in that beyond the 5.2% y/y expected could jar the Fed into a more-hawkish stance. We got a hint of that Wednesday from Daly as the talk about going beyond neutral if necessary ramps up.



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