Technical Analysis


EURUSD falls back below its 100/200 hour moving averages

The EURUSD has moved lower after the US jobs report showed a stronger than expected gain in nonfarm payroll. The move to the downside took the price back below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.07221 and 1.07177 respectively. The low price extended to 1.07033 so far. The current price trades at 1.0711.

The close resistance is now against the moving average levels. A move back above 1.07221 would tilt the intraday/shorter term bias back to the upside.

Looking at the hourly chart, the high in the Asian session did stall against the swing hi going back to last Friday at 1.07637. Sellers leaned against that level and were rewarded with the move to the downside after the jobs report (albeit with the data release risk)

For the week, the low price fell below a swing area between 1.0633 1.0644 on Wednesday, but could not extend to and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 13 low. That retracement comes in at 1.06187. The subsequent rise re-traced through swing lows going back to the end of May. Those swing levels are now targets on the downside including 1.0696, 1.06787, and 1.06611.

A move back above the 100 hour moving average 1.07226 would have traders looking toward the swing area between 1.0748 and 1.07637. The high price for the week at 1.07857 would be another upside target on a run higher.



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