Technical Analysis

NZDUSD breaks higher today

The RBNZ raise rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. On that day, the  NZDUSD  moved higher extending above the high from Monday’s trade in the process on its way to 0.65135.

However buyers turned back to sellers, the price moved back below a swing area between 0.64908 and 0.6499, and the pair did not stall until getting close to the rising 100 hour moving average. That same moving average stalled the fall earlier in the session on Wednesday before the interest rate decision.

Price action yesterday was up and down, but of significance from a technical perspective was that the 100 hour moving average (blue line) held support on two separate dips to the level (see blue line). The not so good news was the highs were lower since the peak on Wednesday (see post from yesterday: “NZDUSD remains above its 100 hour moving average on tips… But upside momentum continues to be a struggle“)

However, in trading today the price in the Asian session was able to extend above the topside downward sloping trendline, and also work its way above the swing high from Monday, the swing high from yesterday, and ultimately the swing high from Wednesday as well.

The high from Wednesday did hold support in the London morning session at 0.65135, helping to give the buyers additional confidence to push to the upside. The price is also been able to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 5 high. That level comes in at 0.65289. The current prices just above that level at 0.6532.

What now?

With the break back above the swing high from Wednesday, that level will now be close support/risk for buyers at the 0.6513. Closer support would be the 38.2% retracement at 0.65289. It would take a move below 0.65131 to disappoint the buyers looking for increased momentum at least in the short-term. A move below that 0.6513 level should lead to a rotation back down toward 0.6490 area (and then see what happens there)..

On the topside, the swing high from May 5 comes in at 0.6567. That would be the next upside target. Above that, and traders will look toward a swing area between 0.6580 and 0.6590 (see green numbered circles in the chart above).

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