Technical Analysis

USDCAD moves above its 100 hour moving average

The  USDCAD  has moved to a lower low for 6 consecutive days. Today, the low took out the low from yesterday by 7 pips. Yesterday’s low took out Wednesday’s low by 11 pips. Wednesday took out Tuesday’s low by 14 pips. So the moves to new lows has been harder, but have nevertheless been reached.

However, if you look at the hourly chart below, the low today did find buyers against a lower trend line connecting recent lows. It also approached the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 21 low at 1.2767. The low price reached 1.2775 today – 8 pips from that key midpoint target.

The last few hours has seen a snapback rally.

That rally is not unlike other lows reached over the last few days of trading. In reality, since Tuesday, the price has been trading up and down.

On Wednesday, the snapback move saw a fairly significant rally to the upside. However, that move found sellers against the falling 100 hour moving average near the end of day on Wednesday, and at the beginning of the day on Thursday (see blue line in the chart above). Holding below that moving average, helped to send the price back to the downside yesterday.

The move higher today has been able to extend above the 100 hour moving average for the 1st time since May 12. The moving average currently comes in at 1.28308. The price is just above that level at 1.2833 currently after reaching a high of 1.28447.

Traders will be watching that 100 hour moving average for bias clues going forward.

  • Stay above is more bullish.
  • Move below – with more momentum – and there could be some disappointed buyers who once again close out there dip buying lows on the lack of upside momentum.

Key intraday level for the pair and for both buyers and sellers.

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